Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
